基于风险分析的公路项目投资决策

Investment Decision for Highway Project Based on Risk Analysis

针对公路建设项目投资决策中的风险问题,通过计算项目现金流量的概率,定量分析了项目所承担的风险,为投资者提供了必要的决策信息,减少了决策的盲目性。公路建设项目投资风险主要以经济风险的形式来反映,各种风险因素的综合作用直接导致项目现金流量发生变化,最终影响到项目的评价指标。以具体公路建设项目为例,对各种风险因素进行分析,并对由此引起的现金流变化进行估计,得到包含风险因素的现金流,据此对净现值(NPV)进行风险评价,得出NPV的分布区间和大于零的概率,可作为公路项目投资决策的依据。

Aimed at the problems of risk in the investment decision for a highway construction project, by calculating the probability of the cash flow in a project, and quantitatively analyzing the risks that a project undertakes, authors supplied the investor with necessary information for decision. Investment risks of a highway construction project are mainly reflected by economic risks, that is, the complex effect of all risk factors directly result in change of the cash flow in the project, and the changes affect the evaluation indexes of the project finally. Taking an actual highway construction project as an example, authors analyzed the risk factors, estimated the change of the cash flow caused by those factors, and obtained a new cash flow including the whole risk factors. By analyzing NPV based on the new cash flow, the distribution range of NPV as well as the probability of the positive NPV was obtained, which could be used as the basis for investment decision of a highway project.