地震预测的信度方法

Methodology of Belief Measure Applying to Earthquake Prediction

概率论与数理统计一直是地震预测中处理不确定性的主要方法,但这一方法也有其局限性。为此我们引进了一种新的不确定性处理方法———证据理论的信度方法。此前,该方法在地震预测中的应用还未见报道。本文首先介绍了信任函数及其在地震预测中的应用方法,包括问题表达和信息综合两个方面,并提出了加权的D-S规则。然后简单讨论了联合信任函数的定义和计算公式,并通过与概率方法的比较,说明了这一方法在地震预测中的应用价值。研究结果表明,利用信度方法处理地震预测中的不确定性问题有其独特的优点。

For handling information uncertainty in earthquake prediction, possbility theory and statistics is of primary method up to now. But it doesn＇ t hold effectiveness in all cases. For this reason,the evidence theory is introduced. In the first part, we give intriduction to the belief function and its application in earthquake prediction, including problem representation as well as information fusion. And the weighted D-S is proposed in accordance with the event synthesizing prediction requirements. Then, in the second part, the association belief measure is discussed and its effciveness is showed. It is concluded that the methods introduced are reasonable and meaningful.