摘要
This paper aims to propose ERT （Expected Reaching Time）, a new risk adverse evaluation criterion of finite multiplication processes, and to examine its properties in relation to the dominance criterion. The ERT means the expected time that takes for an objective valiable to reach a target value. To deal with the environmental risk involved in the process, the expectation maximizing strategy may be the most well known. However, for many cases the dominance strategy rather than the expectation maximizing strategy is adopted and works very well. In this paper we first prove rigorously that minimization of the ERT is equivalent to the dominance criterion in the infinite period. Then we demonstrate by simulation that the ERT gives almost equal evaluation as the dominance criterion even for the finite multiplications, after showing that it is approximately proportional to the logarithm of the target value.
