中国房地产周期与金融稳定

China's Property Cycles and Financial Stability

房地产周期与金融稳定息息相关。1998年以来的我国房地产周期置身于全球地产泡沫的危言之中,格外令人关注。本文首先分析了驱动本轮房地产周期的增长面、宏观面与制度面因素,并利用1992—2004年的季度数据进行计量分析,指出无论是房地产业发展还是房地产价格总水平,在今后较长时期内仍会呈稳中趋升的态势。文章进而指出,本轮房地产周期对金融稳定的影响主要体现在房地产信贷风险暴露、政府担保风险以及长存短贷的期限错配风险,并在此基础上提出相应的政策建议:努力解决银行业自身问题、规范地方政府行为以及有效监管外资进入中国房地产业。

Real estate cycles and financial stability are closely interrelated. China＇ s real estate cycle since 1998 involved in the global real estate bubbles draws worldwide attention. Based on analyzing three driving factors of real estate cycle in the aspect of growth, macro-economy and institutional setup, this paper performs an econometric analysis with quarterly data of 1992--2004, indicating that in the medium and long term, both development and general price of real estate tend to maintain the stable upward trend. This paper then points out that the impact of current real estate cycle on financial stability could be the risks resulting from real estate lending exposure, government guarantees and maturity mismatch, followed by some corresponding policy implications such as advancing banking reform, improving the behavior of local governments and strengthening the monitor of foreign capital inflows.