2006年中国经济展望

Trend and Prospect of China's Economy in 2006

本文从工业、消费、投资、外贸、农业、物价、财政政策与货币政策等角度对2006年中国经济形势进行了全面的展望,并利用计量模型对2006年经济总量和物价走势进行了预测。认为,2006年中国经济将继续保持高增长、低通胀的良好态势,经济增长的质量将得到改善。

In this paper, we present an outlook about China＇s economy of 2006. We focus on industrial production, investment, consumption, foreign trade, agriculture, price, fiscal policy and monetary policy, etc. We also use econometric models to forecast GDP and CPI growth rates. Combining qualitative analysis and quantitative forecasting, we conclude that China＇s economy will continue its ＂high growth but low inflation＂ trend, and the quality of economic growth will be improved.