铁路货物运输的随机过程分析和及时送达概率估计

Stochastic Process Analysis of Railway Freight Traffic and Probability Estimation of In-time Freight Transport

应用随机过程理论,分析铁路运输系统中货物及时送达的概率分布,得到货物运输延续时间的平均值,为实现用户要求的运到期限提供了合理保证,并可通过评估与货主商定的运到期限与实际货物送达时间误差的概率,来找到货物及时送达过程中的关键环节,改进货物送达流程。最后举例说明它的应用。

The probability distribution of in time freight transport of the railway traffic system is analyzed by application of the stochastic process theory, and the mean continued time of freight transport is obtained, which ensures reasonable fulfilment of customers demand of time limit of transport. The probability of the error between a bargain time limit and an actual time limit is evaluated, and the key links of in-time transport are found to improve the process of freight transport. Application of the stochastic process theory is expounded by a practical example.