灰色关联分析法在油气管道半定量风险评价中的应用

Application of Gray Correlation Analysis in Kent Pipeline Risk Assessment

肯特(W．kent Muhlbauer)管道风险评价法是一种半定量风险评价法,但是该方法在我国还处在起步阶段,其理论基础和应用技术都很不完善。为了有效处理评分中存在的主观性和不确定性因素,已经把模糊综合评判法引入到管道风险评价中。但是,传统的相对风险值计算还不够准确,为此介绍了灰色关联分析在油气管道半定量风险评价中的应用。通过对影响管道风险的评价指标(因素)体系的综合分析,确定了灰色综合评价的层次结构模型。构建了由第三方破坏指数、腐蚀指数、设计指数、错误指数、介质危险指数5大指标体系构成的管道系统风险综合评价指标体系,并采用层次分析与专家打分相结合的方法计算权重。在油气管道半定量风险评价中应用灰色关联分析法,可以使评价结果更准确。

The pipeline risk assessment presented by W. Kent Muhlbauer is a method of semi-quantitative risk assessment. The application of this method is just at the beginning stage in our country. The fuzzy integrative evaluation has been introduced into pipeline risk assessment in order to effectively deal with subjective and uncertainty problems in scoring. But the accuracy of traditional relative risk account is not good enough. Therefore the gray correlation analysis is introduced to the semi-quantitative risk assessment for oil and gas pipelines. Through the synthetic analysis on assessment index system affecting pipeline risk, the hierarchy model of the gray synthetic assessment is established, in which the weight is calculated by combining hierarchy analysis with expert scoring.