浅析俄罗斯的政治发展及其前景

Analysis of Russian Political Development and Its Perspective

叶利钦执政8年多,给俄罗斯留下了一系列错综复杂的问题。普京执政以来放弃空洞的“民主”口号,在社会政治领域建立以总统集权为核心的“可控民主”,为社会政治发展和经济振兴提供有力保障。经过4年多的治理,与叶利钦时期相比,俄罗斯政治领域出现了明显的变化:形成了相对和谐的社会政治气氛、相对团结的精英集团、中央集权式的中央与地方关系和强大的“政权党”。随着普京第二个总统任期的开始,国家最高权力的交接问题开始成为公众关注的对象。在普京一系列改革措施总体上取得成功的同时,出现了一些对俄罗斯未来的政治发展产生消极影响的不利因素和不定因素。在“可控民主”下的俄罗斯,能够对执政当局造成振动的恐怕也只有来自精英集团内部、来自官僚体制内部的挑战。未来的俄罗斯政治领导人将最有可能来自执政集团。

The eight-year-plus Yeltsin rule left behind a series of complicated problems for Russia. Since he took power, Putin has dropped empty ‘democratic” slogans and instituted “controllable democracy” in the socio-political field with presidential power as the core, providing powerful guarantee for socio-political development and economic rejuvenation. After four years and more of governance, compared with the Yeltsin period, the Russian political field underwent an obvious change, forming a relatively harmonious social and political atmosphere, a relatively united elite group, a centralized central-local tie, and a strong “Russia's Party Of Power”. With the start of Putin's second presidency, the handover of state supreme power became a focus of world attention. While his series of reform measures were generally crowned with success, some unfavorable factors and uncertainties exerted negative influence on future Russian political development. The only thing that could possibly bring shocks to Russia under “controllable democracy” would be challenges from within the elite group and the bureaucracy. Future Russian political leaders would most probably come from the ruling group.