变形预测的加权灰色GOM(1,1)模型与时序方法

Deformation Prediction with weighted Grey GOM(1,1) Model and Time Series Method

在进行变形监测的过程中,尤其是变形数据呈现递减趋势时,采用传统的模型有其不合理性,采用反向累加生成的方法建立灰色反向累加加权模型,并且与时间序列方法结合使用,通过实例表明,对于呈递减趋势的变形数据,使用这种组合模型预测值优于传统的灰色模型和时间序列模型。

In the course of deformation monitoring, especially as the deformation data present the decreasing trend, adopting the traditional GM （1,1） model is irrational. The opposite-direction accumulation method is used to set up the grey opposite-direction accumulation weighted model GOM （1,1） that is used together with the time series method. The instance indicates that for the deformation data with the decreasing trend, the prediction deformation value by the combined model is superior to that of the traditional grey model and the time series model.