模糊化的马尔柯夫链在图书情报管理预测中的应用

THE APPLICATION OF FUZZY MARKOV CHAINS TO THE PREDICATIONS IN THE MANAGEMENT OF LIBRARY INFORMATION

马尔柯夫链预测法在图书情报管理系统中的应用有着乐观的前景，但在处理实际问题时常因状态的划分数较少而难以得到满意的结果。运用模糊转移概率的概念，采用梯形分布确定隶属度的计算方法，克服了上述不足，使预测结果和实际情况更加符合。

Markov chains predicting method has an obtimistic future in the application to the management of library inforomation system, but usually it is difficult to get satisfactory results with the small guantity of the state partition when dealing with actural problems. Applying the concept of fuzzy transition probability, and the calculating method of using trapezuid distribution to decide the membership degree, the paper has overcome the above shortcomings, thus the predicting result meets the actural situation.