基于未确知信息的污染源排污风险评价研究

Risk Assessment on Over-standard Pollutant Discharged in a Pollution Source Based on Unascertained Information

基于河流水环境系统信息的未确知性,在将水质模型参数定义为未确知数的基础上,建立了描述污染源排污浓度与下游控制断面水质浓度关系的未确知数学模型。通过将污染源超标排污行为定义为未确知事件,建立了表征超标排污可能性大小的未确知模式。研究表明,所建模型对评价河流污染源超标排污风险具有很好的适用性。

Based on the unascertainty of river water envinnmentat system, unascertained parameters of water environmental system were defined. On the basis, an unascertained model was established, which described the relation between effluent concentration of a pollution source and practicat pollutant concentration on the control section of lower reaches of a river, by way of defining the water quality model parameters ms unascertained numbers. In addhion, through defining the thing of over-standard pollutant discharged of a pollution souree as an unascertained event, a model for determining the probability that such unascerrained event happens was proposed too. Study result showed that these unascertained models provided upward were suitable for the research of over-standard pollutant discharged of a pollution source.