用卡尔曼滤波制作河南省冬春季沙尘天气短期预报

Application of Kalman Filtering to Dust Forecast in Winter and Spring over Henan Province

在分析河南省冬春季沙尘天气气候特征的基础上,筛选出T213数值预报产品中与风速和能见度相关性较好的预报因子,采用卡尔曼滤波方法,分站建立了河南省冬、春季的风速和能见度短期预报方程,并利用相应的沙尘天气分级量化标准,在一定程度上实现了河南省冬、春季沙尘天气的短期分站、分级预报。业务运行时,又增加了两条判别指标进行后处理,有效地消除了液滴对能见度预报的影响,提高了沙尘天气预报的准确率。

Based on the analysis of climatic characteristics of dust weather in winter-spring in Henan, some variables, which have close relationship with visibility and wind speed, are selected from the T213 Numerical Product as predicting factors （predictor）, and then, with Kalman filtering method, the prediction equation of visibility and wind speed in spring and winter in Henan is developed. In terms of discriminative standard of dust weather, the quantitative dust weather forecast in spring and winter for the stations in Henan is realized. In the forecast operation, another two discriminative standard were added to eliminate the effect of liquid droplets on the visibility, therefore the prediction accuracy is increased.