2010年北京市流动人口预测

The prediction of Beijing floating population in 2010

针对北京市流动人口样本数据量小、不连续等特点,本文采用Logistic曲线拟合和等维递补灰色预测理论,预测“十一五”期间北京流动人口的增长情况。首先,通过Logistic曲线拟合与外推,掌握流动人口增长的总趋势;其次,选定不同长度的人口序列以建立多个等维递补灰色模型,检验并分析各种预测结果的合理性与不足;最终确定北京市流动人口增长预测的高、中、低方案。实践表明,灰色等维递补预测法对“小样本”、“贫信息”的人口预测是切实可行的。

Population movement is a regular population phenomenon of population system development, and also the social and economic phenomenon in substance, which is bound to spark off the chain reaction of social and economic system. Since the last one hundred and more years, many scholars who were in the fields of demography, geography, economics, sociology and so on have studied the reason, regularity and mechanism of population movement. They brought forward many theoretical models with far-reaching influence, whose emphases were laid on different aspects of population movement. Unfortunately, the achievement in the research on floating population prediction was relatively less. The available data of floating population in Beijing is characterized by its small amount and discontinuity. In view of this situation, the author predicted the amount of floating population in Beijing during the National ＂Eleventh Five-Year Plan＂ with the aid of both Logistic model and isodimensionally fill-vacancies-in-the-proper-order grey theory. Firstly, by means of the curve fitting and prediction of Logistic model, we got the general tendency of floating population increase. Secondly, the different-dimensional population time-series were used to construct several isodimensionally fill-vacancies-in-the-proper-order grey system models, then the rationality and deficiencies of predicted results were tested and analyzed. Finally, taking into account of the analysis, three schemes of low, middle and high levels are formulated. On the one hand, the floating population has turned to be an,organic part and been actively thrown themselves to Beijing＇s economic development. On the other hand, with sharp increase of the floating population, urban management faces up to a new test, such as the constant increase in the pressure of urban infrastructure and the frequent occurrence of social problems. Therefore, it is very necessary to predict the amount of floating popu- lation in future for various government departments such as urban management, urban planning or urban contruction, etc. But the limited data often impedes us from accurately forecasting the changing amount of the floating population. As the above practice demonstrates, with the help of fill-vacancies-in-the-proper-order grey system models, it is feasible to forecast the change of population which is characterized by small amount of data and limited interrelated information.