地震活动性新指标η、c在综合概率预报中的应用

APPLICATION OF NEW SEISMICITY INDEXES η,c TO COMPREHENSIVE PROBABILITY FORECAST

将近几年提出的地震活动性新指标η、ｃ及ｂ值直接用在地震综合概率预报中，经计算分析，效果较好。在利用地震活动性指标进行综合概率预报时应考虑实际的预报模式。这种模式就是不同的地区可能有不同的ｖ值范围。通过在不同ｖ值下计算结果的综合判别才可能得出较为正确的预报意见。作为例子，文末给出了新疆喀什地区的实际预报计算结果。

Through calculation and analysis it is thought that applying b value and new seisndcity indexes V.c suggested in recent years to seismic comprehensive probability prediction has a better result. But the actual forecast model should be considered when these indexes are used to make comprehensive propability prediction. This kind of model just is that different ranges of v value may be in differen areas. Only comprehensive judgement under different v values aught correctly forecast earthquake. Taking Kashi area in Xinjiang as an example,the result of its practical prediction is given in the end of this paper.