摘要
China and Russia stand as the two different modes of transformation from the planned to the market economic system. A correct theoretical definition of the mode itself is necessary here before we proceed to probe for what has determined the adoption of either mode. In the theoretical conceptualization of the modes of economic system transformation, two views are now current. One view summarizes them into two different ways, the radical and the gradual, as found with China and Russia.
本文从改革风险的角度研究转型方式的决定问题,以宪法性秩序是否崩溃为线索,将中俄为代表的两种转型方式概括为转型的平滑模式和突变模式,提出了转型方式综合因素决定理论,具体地指出了转型的初始条件和改革策略各自在转型方式决定中的作用。制约着改革策略选择的初始条件包括原计划体制的结构、外部环境、改革时机三个因素,三者的交集决定着改革的策略空间。能够直接决定转型方式的改革策略,包括寻求改革“合法性”的处理方式、改革时序安排、掌握改革主导权、对社会利益分化的调控四个方面。中国在前三个方面都采取了正确的策略并且已经取得成功,但是在第四个方面的风险正在积聚和加大。
