因果图和模糊综合风险评价在城市燃气输配系统的应用

Urban gas fuel network system risk analysis based on cause-effect diagram and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation

针对复杂的城市燃气输配系统,利用因果图和模糊综合评价相结合的方法对其进行风险分析。因果图能找出影响城市燃气输配系统失效的因素,模糊综合评价则可在其基础上对风险量化。以某市的燃气输配系统为例描述了该方法的步骤。结果表明,因果图和模糊综合评价相结合的方法合理且易于工程应用。

The paper aims to introduce the authors＇ ans, lysis on the urban gas fuel network system risk from the point of view of the cause-effect. As we know, urban gas fuel network system is a potential hazardous source. People around the system are subject to the risk from it at any unexpected moment. In recent years, a great deal of effort has been dedicated to the accident prevention. Most common accidents such as toxic emissions, fires, arid explosions take place at times. The sophisticated nature of the urban gas fuel, the objective hazards and limitations of the existing assessment means leave us no alternatives but to combine the two methods of cause-effect diagram and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation tor such analysis. The factors influencing the safety level of urban gas fuel net-work system can be determined by such a diagram, such as the transmission system, risk prevention measures and safety management, and so on listed in this paper. Considering the uncertainties of these factors, the paper is using the analytic hierarchy process as an elicitation method of the expertise to weigh the relative importance of such factors, In addition, linguistic judgment scale and the numerical judgment trom expertise are used as reference to the numerical scale （Saaty＇s proposal） in a single matrix of pairwise comparisons, And then it is possible to process the risk quantification with the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Based on the weight of each factor from the matrix and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, it is possible to determine the risk level of the urban gas fuel net-work system. The suggested new analytical steps are listed in an illustrated form, whose result shows that the risk of the urban gas fuel net-work system in a city is low and the combination method of cause-effect diagram and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is of advantage and can be applied in engineering. It may be useful for risk mangement and pipeline planning.