预测铁路旅客运输市场发展趋势的研究

Study on Forecasting the Evolution Tendency of Railway Passenger Transport Market

为了准确反映铁路旅客运输市场的波动情况,有必要建立铁路旅客运输市场景气预警监测系统,以对我国铁路客运的宏观管理决策、适时调控和动态监测等提供支持手段。为此根据1987年—2001年我国铁路旅客运输市场的实际状况,建立了景气预警监测系统模型,对系统评价指标的设置、景气指数计算和控制信号灯系统等进行了论述,并对模型进行了实证分析。

To accurately reflect the fluctuation of railway passenger transport market, it is necessary to establish a climate early warning ＆ supervision system in order to provide supportive means for the decision-making of macro control, in-time adjustment and dynamic supervision of China railway passenger transport. For this purpose, based on the actuality of railway passenger transport market between 1987 and 2001, a model of climate early warning ＆ supervision system is established. After discussing the setup of system evaluation index, the calculation of climate index and the controlling signal system, the paper also carries out a practical analysis to this model.