考虑组织和管理因素影响的人误概率计算方法

Calculating Method on Human Error Probabilities about Considering Influence of Management and Organization

采用三级影响图(Influence Diagram,ID)模型,对人的失误概率计算进行了描述,模型中能考虑组织和管理因素对人误概率的影响。概率影响图最初只是作为构造和表征决策树或事件树模型的一种工具,本文按三级影响水平对产生人误的原因建立了分析模型,介绍定量求解影响图模型的方法。它可用于核电厂概率安全评价中的人误概率计算,也可用于复杂事件树的定量化,它是一种工程决策分析中的重要方法。

This paper is concerned with how management and organizational influences can be fac- tored into quantifying human error probabilities on risk assessments,using a three-level Influ- ence Diagram(ID)which is originally only as a tool for construction and representation of m odels of decision-making trees or event trees.Here a analytical model of human errors causa- tion has been set up with three influence levels,introducing a method for quantification assess- ments(of the ID,Which can be applied into quanti fying probabilities)of human errors on risk assessments,especially into the quantification of complex event tress(system)as engineering decision-making analysis.A numerical case study is provided to illustrate the approach.