20世纪暴雨和洪水极值的年代际变化

Inter-decadal change of the rainstorm and flood extreme values in the 20th century

利用20世纪100年(特别是后50年)2万多个雨量站和175个大中河流水文站的实测和调查雨量和流量资料,分析了中国大陆(外流区)暴雨和洪水极值的年代际变化,其中包括长期站暴雨的年代均值变化、20世纪50年点雨量极值的前后期平均值对比、最大点雨量发生年代分布和特大洪峰流量的年代分布。分别就5种历时、不同地区的暴雨洪水极值随年代的变化作了分析,揭示了变化的事实,计算了多项年代比率,探讨了影响因子。

Climatic change is increasingly concerned. The observed and investigated rainfall and the discharge data from early years, mean value of the point rainstorm＇s extreme values with that of the recent 50 years, the decadal distribution of the maximum point rainfalls and the decadal distribution of extraordinary flood peaks. The extreme values of rainstorm and flood varying with decades are analysed from the different durations and regions; the variable facts are demonstrated; some decadal ratios are calculated; and several affecting factors are investigated.