1996～2003年全国交通事故伤害的时间序列分析

A Time Series Analysis of Injury Caused by Traffic Accidents from 1996 to 2003 in China

目的：分析全国交通事故及交通事故伤害的发生情况，为交通事故的预防和控制提供基本数据。方法：利用国家统计局公布的交通事故、年度人口、社会经济发展统计数据，采用描述性研宄的方法，分析1996-2003年全国交通事故的发生率、致伤与死亡情况、直接经济损失。结果：全国交通事故发生数从1996年的28．77万起，增加到2003年的66．75万起；交通事故的构成以机动车事故为主（〉90％），而汽车交通事故占事故总数的70％以上，摩托车事故发生率呈现增长趋势；因车祸死亡人数从1996年的7．36万人，增加到2003年的10．44万人，受伤人数从17．44万人增加到为49．42万人。车祸死亡率从6．02／10万上升到8．08／10万；直接经济损失从1996年的17．17亿元增加到2003年的33．69亿元。结论：交通事故对居民健康和生命的威胁日益加重，社会各部门应积极采取相应措施，切实减少交通事故伤害对人民生命安全的成胁．降低交通事故的疾病负担。

Objectives To determine the present status of traffic aceidents and provide basic information for preventing and controlling traffic - related injury. Methods According to the data about traitlc accidents, total population, and development of society and economy published by National Bureau of Statistics of China, we used time series analysis to study the incidence rate of traffic accidents, the wounds and deaths in the accidents and the direct economic loss caused by tratt3e accidents. Results From 1996 to 2003, the cases of traffic accidents increased from 287685 to 667507. The majority of traffic accidents were caused by motor vehicles （more than 90% ）, among which the tragic accidents caused by automobiles accounted for more than 70%. The accidents caused by motorcycle also increased rapidly. The number of death caused by trattic accidents increased from 73655 to 104372, and the number of wounds increased from 174447 to 494174. The death rate caused by traffic accidents increased from 6.02 per 100000 to 8.08 per 100000. The direct economic loss caused by traffic accidents increased from 1717 million RMB to 3369 million RMB. Conclusions Traffic accident has been a major public problem and efforts must： be done to reduce disease burden of injury caused by tragic accidents.