中国农村区域经济增长的收敛性研究

Convergence of regional economic growth in rural China

采用我国农村1992—2003年分省的农村经济增长率作为数据基础,以1992年农村人均社会生产总值和人力资本存量作为初始变量,筛选出科技水平指标、产业结构指标和生产要素指标作为控制变量,以经济增长理论为依据,拟合绝对收敛模型、β-收敛模型和α-收敛模型,检验分析了1990年代以来我国农村区域经济增长的收敛模式。结果表明:我国农村省际之间经济并不存在绝对收敛,即落后省份经济的增长并不比发达省份增长快;但是存在条件收敛,即在控制了稳态的决定因素之后,落后地区的经济增长快于发达地区的经济增长,从而使差距缩小;在影响条件收敛的诸因素中,人力资本、产业结构以及科学技术对我国农村经济条件收敛的贡献最大。该结论可供区域经济协调发展研究参考。

This article describes the regional economic gap and its restrictive factors on harmonic development in rural China, Based on data recorded between 1992 and 2003, it examines the （absolute or conditional） convergence of regional economic growth by estimating 3 models based on the New Classical Economics, The results show that absolute convergence does not exist in rural economics among provinces, indicating that the economics growth of undeveloped provinces is not faster than that of developed provinces, However, the economic development in rural China is charac- terized by the conditional convergence, that is, if the decisive factors stability is insured, the economic growth of unde- veloped provinces would be faster than that of developed provinces. Thus, the disparity among them could be nar- rowed. This paper shows that the manpower capital, the industrial structure and agricultural science and technology play an important role in the process.