地下水位地震短临预报前兆标志体系研究

RESEARCH ON PRECURSORY INDEX SYSTEM OF GROUND WARTER LEVEL FOR SHORT-IMMINENT TERM EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

建立地下水位地震短临预报前兆标志体系的主要依据是:从以往的震例中总结、统计出的多种异常特征参量(即异常标志)与地震三要素之间的定量(或半定量、定性)关系.判定震级的异常标志有:异常分布范围、异常时空转移、异常数量、异常形态、异常持续时间和异常幅度;判定发震时间的异常标志有:异常开始和转折(结束)时间、异常数量、异常形态、异常时空转移和异常速率(或幅度);判定发震地点的异常标志有:异常空间分布图象、异常数量与密度、异常形态、异常时空转移、井孔对应地震的地区或控制范围、异常速率(或幅度)以及前次地震后效异常分布区等.

The precursory index system of groundwater level for short imminent earthquake prediction has been set up haesd mainly on the quantitative (or semi-quantitative or qualitative) relation between several premonitory phenomena parameters (that is precursory index) and three earthquake parameters that have been obtained by the summary of historical event examples. The precursory indexes for the judgment of earthquake magnitudes are as follows the spatial distribution, the spatial and temporal migration , the quantity ,the shape ,the duration and the amplitude of the precursors. The precursory indexes for the determination of earthquake occurrence time are as the beginning and turning (ending) time, the quantity, the shape, the spatial and temporal migration and the rate (or amplitude) of the precursors. The precursory indexes for determination of seismic epcenters are as the spatial distribution pattern, the quantity and the density, the pattern, the spatial and the temporal migration, the related region with earthquake and the control area by the wells, the rate (or amplitude) and the spatial distribu tion of the precursors after last strong event.