热带气旋内部非对称积云对流对其移动的影响

The Influence of the Inner Asymmetrical Cumulus Convection in Tropcial Cyclones on their Motion

在一个简单的两层板对称ＣＩＳＫ模式中，我们考虑了热带气旋内部非对称积云对流的作用，并由此推导出热带气旋移动的动力学速度公式．利用ＳＰＥＣＴＲＵＭ—９０这套热带气旋试验资料，本文着重分析了热带气旋内部非对称积云对流对其运动的影响，以探索热带气旋移动与引导气流偏差的可能机理。计算结果表明，考虑积云对流非对称作用产生的动力学速度确能明显改善热带气旋的路径预报效果，尤其对于一些疑难路径，这种改善作用更突出。因此，ＣＩＳＫ理论不仅是热带气旋发展和维持的重要机制，而且对热带气旋移动的影响也不可忽视。

The dynamic velocity of the tropical cyclone motion is derived from a two level plank-asymmetry CISK mode considering the effect of the inner asymmetrical cumulus convection. In this paper, using the relatively dense data from SPECTRUM-90,we attempt to analyze the influence of the inner structural characteristic of tropical cyclones on their motion and thus to reveal the mechanism of the deviation between the steering now and cyclone motion. The result shows that inclusion of the effect of the asymmetry of the inner cumulus convection will substantially improve the forecasting accuracy of tropical cyclone motion, especially for the unusual motion. Therefore, CISK theory not only is the important mechanism for the formation and development of tropical cyclones but also obviously affects their motion.