利用电子地图实行传染病预警预测的探讨

Utilization of Electronics Map to Early-alarming and Prediction of Infectious Diseases Outbreak

目的探讨利用电子地图实行传染病预警预测的方法。方法应用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型的原理,建立《南宁市常规疫情辅助分析系统》,《南宁市疾病防控预警系统》。结果可根据用户选择的条件,进行各种比较查询,查询的结果用不同的颜色在地图上显示,以及将疾病的(发病或死亡数/率)和预期数据相比,如超过预期数据,则该区域立即显示红色,实现预警。结论该系统利于及时对疫情进行汇总、分析与评估,预测疫情的走向趋势,预防突发公共卫生事件的发生。

Objective The utilization of an electronics map for early prediction and alarming of infectious diseases outbreak was investigated. Method Applied the principles of the gray model GM system （1, 1）, ＂The Routine Epidemic Status Assistant Analysis System of Nanning＂ and ＂The Infectious Diseases Surveillance Early-alarming System of Nanning＂ were designed. Results With the conditions selected, the system can carry on various comparative searches, the searching results were manifested by different colors on the map, and the morbidity and the mortality were compared with the expectation ones, if it exceeded the expected, that district showed the red alarming signal immediately, thus provided the early alarming function. Conclusion The system benefits in carry on gathering, analyzing and evaluating to the epidemic outbreak in time, predicts the trend of the epidemic, prevents from the outbreaks to become significant hazard public hygiene affairs.