2005年钯市场回顾及2006年预测

Review of Palladium Market in 2005 and Forecast for 2006

2005年的钯价在年底振翅冲高测试300美元/盎司大关,基金是背后的动力。全年涨幅69%,超过金价的32%、银价的48%和铂价的21%;价格的攀升集中在年底。2005年钯市场连续第5年供应过剩,过剩量比2004年的143万盎司有大幅下降,为65万盎司,达到55%。总的供应量同比下降4.7%,达到754万盎司,总的需求量同比增长6.3%到689万盎司。预计2006年钯市场的供、需都将继续增长。尽管地面库存仍十分庞大,但需求面的改善以及未来前景的看好,将继续吸引基金入市,构成价格上涨的主要推动力。安泰科预计,2006年钯的年均价为330美元/盎司。

The palladium price test $300/ounce resistant at the end of 2005.The most drive comes from fund.Compare with last year,the price rises by 69% which is over 32% of golden,48% of silver and 21% of platinum; Fundamental, again, supplies overrun demand for the fifth consecutive surplus year.However, demand from jewellery and electronics are improve,supplies are fall with reduced sales of metal from Russia, the surplus between supply and demand is decline. One can forecast that both supply and demand will continue to increase in 2006. Though over-ground stockpile maintains high level, an improving demand situation and a brilliant foreground will keep up fund＇s interest. That will offset the poor fundamental and prompting the price rise. It can expect an ayerage of $330/ounce of palladium in 2006.