中国近期不会出现严重的经济波动——通过经济波动趋势分解进行的分析与证明

The Serious Economic Fluctuations Will not Occur in China In A Short Time——the analysis and demonstration through decomposing the trend and cycle component of economy

利用高—低中点法和H-P滤波法对我国GDP增长率序列进行了趋势成分和波动成分的分解,并比较分析了趋势成分和波动成分的基本特征,说明中国经济的周期波动将不可避免,但严重的经济波动甚至大萧条不会发生。

This paper applies the decomposition of trend component and cycle component to the Chinese GDP growth rate series through peak- trough-mid point and H-P Filtering, and separately compares and analyzes the basic characteristics of trend component and cycle component, showing that the periodic business cycle cannot be avoided, but the serious economic fluctuations or the great depression will not occur in China in a short time.