我国金融制度变迁的路径依赖和演化趋势分析

Analysis on the Change and Development Trend of China's Financial System

制度变迁选择何种方式,主要受制于一个社会的利益集团之间的权利结构和偏好结构,我国金融制度变迁乃至整个经济制度变迁的核心在于政府供给主导型变迁让位于需求主导型制度变迁。由于“国家悖论”、政府效用函数最大化以及政府偏好序列的约束,及各个既得利益集团为获取制度租金而采取的博弈,使政府供给主导型的强制性金融制度变迁具有强势路径依赖的特征,锁定在低效状态。要退出我国金融制度的锁定状态,必须引入新的内生变量和外生变量,实施动态的制度变迁,从而达到高效的路径替代。

The way of the change of system depends on the preference structure of the interest group, The core of the change of Chinese, financial system is the change of the demand of the government. Because of some disadvantage of our system, we have to improve our system and try to find some other ways to achieve the goal instead.