非开挖施工中风险概率估价方法分析

Risk Analysis of Trenchless Construction on Cost Probability Assessment Method

由于地下的不确定性,特别是在拥挤的城市,非开挖施工常面临极大的风险。论文提出基于层次分析树的风险概率估价方法用于定量风险的分析。该方法可以方便地计算与比较潜在的附加风险,这有利于项目工程师作出更加理性的决策。将该方法应用于穿越黄浦江的一个非开挖施工的风险分析中,结果表明,可以预测较高风险的附加费用分析。

Trenchless construction faces significant risks due to uncertainty underground, especially in a congested city. This paper puts out a risk -cost probability assessment method combined with a decision tree method. Through this method, the potential additional cost can easily be calculated and compared, which is helpful for project engineers to make a rational decision. In a case about the across Huangpu River project, Shanghai, China, the risk factors were analyzed, and cost distributiong of high risks were predicted.