对地铁项目全寿命周期风险管理的研究

Study on Life Cycle Risk Management of Metro

地铁项目在全寿命周期内存在大量的不确定性风险因素,阻碍了项目建设目标的实现。近年来国内外地铁频频发生事故,引起了人们对地铁项目风险管理的重视。作者提出了地铁项目全寿命周期风险集成化管理模式(LCIRMM)。LCIRMM有助于整合地铁风险管理的各种资源,实现全寿命周期风险损失最小化的目标。另外,通过采用风险调查的方法,对地铁项目各个建设阶段的几个风险因素进行了定性的评估,给出了风险评估矩阵;并给出了LCIRMM模式下地铁项目在各个阶段的风险管理要点。

There are many risks in metro engineering during its life cycle, which are the serious barriers to realize the settled goals. Especially, in recent years, Metro disasters happened frequently, which led to great attentions been paid to risk management of Metro. In this paper, the Life Cycle Integrated Risk Management of Metro （LCIRMM） was given, which could help to make full use of all sources and fulfill the goal of minimizing the risk cost during rite life cycle of Matro. Several risk factors in planning stage, construction stage and operation stage were investigated. The risk assessment matrix and risk level were also obtained eventuaUy. Then,according to LCIRMM different management strategies in different stages were laid out.