基于粮食安全策略的耕地需求量预测研究——以湖北省为例

Research on the Prediction of Gross Arable Land Based on Food-safety

常见的耕地需求量预测方法主要是采用回归分析法、灰色预测法,缺乏对自然和社会因素的内在分析,忽略了国家粮食安全策略的影响。但是耕地保护与粮食安全之间存在着相当密切的联系,因此,本文基于国家粮食安全策略考虑进行耕地需求量的预测。结合国民经济发展及各用地部门需求,考虑规划期间耕地减少和增加的各种可能性,最终确定耕地需求的合理规模。

This paper discusses the prediction methods of gross arable land based on food-safety. There are many methods to predict the gross arable land such as regressive analysis and grey system. But the methods are based on the historic data on the common. As gross arable land has strong connection with food safety, we should take food-safety into account when we predict the need of gross arahie land. In the paper, the authors fix on the amount of gross arable land based on food-safety and the need of every department. The prediction method is identified by taking prediction of gross arable land in Hubei province.