应用模糊线性回归模型预测中长期电力负荷

Mid-and long-term load forecast based on fuzzy linear regression model

针对负荷影响因素的复杂性和不确定性,结合模糊数学和线性回归模型,讨论应用模糊线性回归模型预测负荷的变化区间。推导了模糊线性回归模型参数求解的数学模型,详细讨论了隶属度的取值对模型参数的影响。应用该模型进行实际预测,分析结果表明该方法的有效性。对模糊预测结果的评判进行了探讨,提出了利用实际值在预测区间的隶属度之和判别预测结果优劣的方法。

For the complexity and uncertainty of load,a fuzzy linear regression model combining fuzzy mathematics with linear regression model is used to forecast the variation sections of load. The mathematical model for solving the parameters of fuzzy linear regression model is deduced ,and the influences of membership degree selection on model parameter are discussed. Practical forecast by it proves its effectiveness. Evaluation of the fuzzy forecast results is discussed,for which a method of summing up the membership degrees of actual loads in every forecast section is used.