基于ARIMA模型的区域水生态足迹时间序列分析

Measuring sustainable development of water resources with aquatic ecological footprint in Guangzhou based on ARIMA model

20世纪末以来,生态足迹理论应用研究成为生态经济学的一个热点,而生态足迹指标的可预测性一直是研究中争论的一个焦点。通过分析1949—1998年广州市的水生态足迹变化,并对计算结果进行ARIMA模型时间序列预测分析,以揭示广州水资源利用和水产品消耗的发展变化规律,并根据其发展变化规律预测广州市未来水生态足迹的变动。结果表明,ARIMA(2,2,2)模型能较好的拟合广州市1949—1993年期间水生态足迹变化,经1994—1998年实际计算结果验证所建模型,误差在5%左右;应用ARIMA(2,2,2)预测广州市1999—2008年的人均水生态足迹,结果分别为:0.5935,0.656 2,0.714 7,0.779 0,0.840 2,0.901 55,0.964 11,1.025 57,1.087 44,1.149 43 hm2,预测结果表明广州市1999—2008年期间的人均水生态足迹仍呈较快上升趋势,居民对于水产品的需求提高以及城市发展、人口增加等社会经济因素是导致这种趋势产生的主要原因。

Ecological Footprint （EF） has become a primary concern in Ecological Economies for many researchers and countries since the late 1990s. One of the issues associated with its application research, however, is the predictability of EF index. In this case study of Guangzhou, Aquatic Ecological Footprint （AEF） was calculated and the results were analyzed using time series method （ARIMA model）. The results indicate that ARIMA （2,2,2） approximates the alteration of the AEF of Guangzhou from 1949 to 1993 well, the correlation coefficient is about 0.98 and the prediction error around 5% between the calculated and the predicted data of Guangzhou AEF from 1994 to 1998, ARIMA（2,2,2） was used to predict AEF ofGuangzhou（1999-2008） because it can interpret the trend of AEF well, the results are 0.593 5, 0.656 2, 0.714 7, 0.779 0, 0.840 2, 0.901 55, 0.964 11, 1.025 57, 1.087 44, 1.149 43 hm^2 respectively. They suggest that the AEF will ascend in five years that possibly resulted by some social economical factors such as city development, the rising of population or demand for aquiculture productions etc.