中国旱灾农业承灾体脆弱性诊断与评价(英文)

Vulnerability Identification and Assessment of Agriculture Drought Disaster in China

旱灾是世界上影响面最广、造成农业损失最大的自然灾害类型,世界近一半的国家干旱严重。中国旱灾频繁,每年旱灾损失占各种自然灾害损失的15%以上,随着人口和农业的快速发展,农业承灾体脆弱性对灾情的放大也在增加。基于灾害系统理论,从致灾因子和耕地承灾体的区域组合角度,在旱灾频发高值区,选择雨养农业、灌溉农业和水田农业为主要承灾体类型,构建了农业旱灾脆弱性生产压力和生活压力,灾前—灾中易损性和灾中—灾后适应性等农业旱灾承灾体脆弱性诊断指标体系。提出脆弱性评价的区域模型,即:雨养农业的易损—适应模型(兴和)、灌溉农业的生产—生活压力模型(邢台)和水田农业的需水—灌水模型(鼎城)。基于农业承灾体脆弱性评价,提出制定适应降水变化的波动土地利用结构调整区域政策、建立农业生态—生产范式、建立“水银行”管理机制、建立用水效益和开源节流的评估体系以及加强“截水—抽水—控水”为一体的灌溉系统工程建设,提高灌溉应急能力等对策,以期为农业旱灾的防御和区域粮食安全决策提供科学依据。

Based on regional combination of the hazard-formation factorsand hazard-affected bodies, distributing disciplinarian of the agriculture hazard-affected bodies and the centers of drought disaster in China are found. According to the primary style of hazard-affected bodies, such as the rainfed field （ Xinghe County）, the irrigated field （Xingtai County） ＆ the paddy field （Dingcheng County） ,this paper sets up vulnerability identification index system of agriculture drought disaster; establishes regional assessment model of agriculture drought vulnerability, such as the frangibility-adaptability model of the rainfed field, the production-living pressure model of the irrigated field and the water demand-supply model of the paddy field. Taking Xinghe County as a case, agriculture drought vulnerability assessment is also carried. The formation of hazard-affected bodies vulnerability and regional sustainable development is discussed, and some scientific advices for the defense of agriculture drought disaster and disaster mitigation are put forward.