上海市浦东新区牙科人力需要与需求预测

A study on dental manpower distribution in Shanghai Pudong new district

目的:进行上海市浦东新区牙科人力资源配置研究,分析上海市浦东新区居民牙科服务需要与需求状况,预测未来需求水平,为上海地区牙科人力资源的区域规划提供依据。方法:采用分层、整群、随机抽样方法,抽取上海市浦东新区5个年龄组共601人进行口腔健康状况和需要与需求问卷调查,并在浦东新区83所口腔医疗机构进行牙科人力资源状况问卷普查。利用卫生服务需要与需求法和比例类推法,计算牙科人力的需要量与需求量,预测2010年浦东新区牙科人力资源需要量与需求量。结果:上海市浦东新区牙科人力总需要量为755～834人,牙科人力总需求量为285～314人。预测2010年,牙科人力总需要需求量392～1041人。受检者现患病率为90.18%,但实际就诊率仅为37.66%。上海市浦东新区牙医人口比为1∶9375。结论:牙科人力供需水平不平衡的原因主要是居民对口腔疾病的就诊意识差,口腔医疗机构提供服务不完善,需求层次不合理,牙科人力结构层次不合理等。

PURPOSE： A study of dental manpower distribution was made in Shanghai Pudong new district in order to analyze the needs and demands for dental services in Shanghai Pudong new district, to forecast the developmental trends of dental demand in the future and to provide basis for regional programs of dental manpower in the urban areas of China. METHODS： An analysis was made in 601 subjects taken from all age groups in Shanghai Pudong new district by stratified and cluster random sampling and in 83 medical institutions of stomatology in Shanghai Pudong new district by mass examination. The amount of dental manpower need and demand was computed and forecasted by means of health care need and demand and proportional analogy methods. RESULTS： The total amounts needed were 755-834 dentists. The total amounts demanded were 285-314 dentists. It was forecasted that the figures would be 392-1041 in the year of 2010. The prevalence of oral disease was 90.18%,but only 37.66% of subjects visited dentist in a year. The ratio of dentists to the population was 1：9375. CONCLUSION： The unbalance between demand for and supply of dental manpower was mainly due to negative awareness of people, the irrationalness of demand levels, problems from service provider and the irrationalness of dental manpower levels.