高速公路建设管理中承包商履约危机预警模型研究

A Study of Early-Warning Model of Contractor′s Fulfill Contract Crisis in Construction Management of Expressway

在高速公路建设过程中,承包商对工程项目的进度、费用、质量控制目标起着至关重要的作用.文中提出一种新的承包商管理方法,即对承包商可能出现的问题进行预警.采用人工神经网络作为解决承包商履约危机的方法.通过确定预警指标、划分预警警度,建立基于BP人工神经网络的预警模型.运用M atlab软件中的神经网络工具箱对该预警模型进行模拟构建,结果表明该模型对承包商危机的判别具有较好的准确率,通过在建高速公路的使用,证明了该预警模型的有效性.

In management of expressway construction, the control of the project progress,the project costs and the project quality by the contractor is playing a very important role. This paper puts forward a new method to solve the problems of contractor＇s crisis in construction management of expressway. The method is an early-warning approach and can be used to solve eontraetorls fulfill contract crisis. Early-warning indexes and early-warning intensities are given and an early-warning model based on BP neural network is established in this paper. The model is built by meaans of neural network toolbox in Matlab and tested in some expressway construction projects with good results.