摘要
采用灰色系统理论，建立了基于GM（1，1）的船闸货运量预测模型，经检验，预测精度良好，模型为一级．应用所建模型进行了运量预测，通过后期2001～2003年实测值与预测值的对比，发现相对误差很小，预测结果合理可信，且优于常用的线性回归预测，由此可以认为，灰色预测方法是值得在水运界进行推广和探讨的．
Based on the grey system theory, the GM（1,1） forecast model of the lock freight volume is established. The verification indicates that the precision of the model is high and the model is the firstclass. The future lock freight volume is predicted by using the model. Comparing the computed volume with the statistic value in 2001-2003, it is found that the relative error is little, and the prediction is reasonable which means the model is better than the linear regression model. Therefore, the grey forecast method is recommended to be used in the waterway engineering.
出处
《武汉理工大学学报（交通科学与工程版）》
2006年第1期117-119,123,共4页
Journal of Wuhan University of Technology（Transportation Science & Engineering）
基金
江苏交通科学研究计划项目资助(批准号:02Y107)
关键词
灰色理论
船闸
货运量
预测
grey theory
lock
freight volume
forecast
