黄土高原作物气候生产力对气候变化的响应

Responses of Climate-Productivity to the Warm-Dry Change of Climate in the Loess Plateau

利用中国黄土高原7省51个气象站1961—2000年主要气象要素观测资料,采用EOF和其他数理统计方法研究了黄土高原气候生产力对气候变化的响应,结果表明:中国黄土高原气候生产力呈递减趋势;年和各季节的平均气温均呈明显的上升趋势,增温速度大于全国同期增温速度;年降水量和作物生长季节降水量均呈下降趋势;黄土高原气候暖干化使作物气候生产力下降。“暖湿型”气候对作物生产最有利,平均增产幅度为5.9%,而“冷湿型”气候对作物生产最不利,平均减产幅度为6.3%。

By using the 1961-2000 main meteorological element data at 51 representative observation stations in the 7 provinces of the Loess Plateau, the response of climate-productivity of crops to climatic change is studied. Results show that the climate-productivity in the Loess Plateau exhibited a decending trend,and the annual and seasonal mean temperatures increased at a rate greater than the mean warming rate over the whole China during the last 40 years. The annual and crop growing senson rainfall decreased. The warming and drying of the climate in the plateau resulted in the decending of climate-productivity. Future ＂warm and humid＂ climate will be most favorable to crops production with a mean growth range of production of 5.9 % ; while future ＂cold and humid＂ climate will be most unfavorable to crops production with a mean reduce range of production of 6.3 %.