未来择偶男性比女性究竟多多少?

Will China Face A Big Shortage of Brides in Future?

使用人口年龄递进模型,分四种方案对男性择偶拥挤态势作了预测,对结果进行了比较。出生人口性别比升高影响择偶的重要时段在2040年前后,届时男性比女性将多出2000万左右,而壮年未婚高峰亦将以同样的规模出现在21世纪50年代。从2020年以后的几十年间,我国婚配比例将始终处在男多女少的状态,男性择偶拥挤的状况将难以改变。

Using age progression model, the paper provides and compares four type of projection on male marriage crowding. The male marriage crowding caused by high sex ratio at birth will hit the peak around 2040 with 2000 male outreaching female, while the unmarried male will get the same size in 2050s. In the several decades after 2020, China will face the shortage of brides.