城市用水量动态预测的双线性模型

Bilinear time series model of urban demand dynamic forecasting

针对城市用水的时变化性和受多因素影响的特点,引入双线性模型,并给出建立预测城市用水量的双线性模型方法。通过利用预测过程中产生的残差信息进行反馈矫正,保证了该模型较高的拟合精度和稳健的预测性能,实例证明该模型结构简单、预测精度高,具有推广应用价值。

Aiming at the time-variation and multi-factor influences of urban demand, the bilinear time series model has been adopted, and a method of creating the bilinear time series model that is applied to predict urban demand has been given. The scheme can ensure high fitting precision and robust forecasting by using the feedback information of prediction residual errors. The case study shows that the method is simple to use with high accuracy. As a general method, the scheme can be applied to predict urban demand widly.