中国经济的高增长能否持续:基于企业生产率动态变化的分析

Is China' s High Growth Sustainable:Based on the Analysis of the Enterprises' Efficiency

经济持续增长的基础是生产效率的提高。本文运用增长核算法(growth accounting)系统地研究了中国大中型工业企业1995—2002年37个两位数工业行业的全要素生产率(TFP)的增长趋势。研究发现:(1)1996～2002年工业增加值增长率平均为11.5％,而 TFP 的行业加权年均增长率为6.8%,且呈逐年上升的趋势,全要素生产率的增长逐渐成为经济增长的主要源泉,显示大中型工业的增长可以持续;(2)全要素生产率的提高与资本深化分不开,工业产出高速增长的同时,伴随着资本增长放缓及从业人数的绝对减少;(3)从行业分布来看,开放程度高、竞争程度高的行业的全要素生产率增长快,而高垄断、开放程度低的行业生产率增长慢,甚至出现下降的局面。

Using the growth-accounting approach and a firm-level panel data collected by the National Bureau of Sta- tistics of China,this paper examines the total factor productivity growth of China's large and medium-sized in- dustrial enterprises sector during 1995～2002.The main findings include:(1) the weighted average of annual growth of added-value was as high as 11.5% in China's large and medium industrial enterprises sector, and the contribution to value added growth by TFP was as high as 6.8% with a rising trend during 1996～ 2002,which has become the main resource of growth,and indicates that China's growth can be sustainable; (2)the growth of TFP was associated with capital deepening,because the high growth of industrial value added was accompanied with the growth of capital as the decrease of well as absolute employment;(3) highly opened, and intensively competitive industrial sectors were characterized by high growth rate of TFP,while those sectors which are extremely controlled by government were shown much lower productivity with a falling trend.