中国商业周期的福利成本

Welfare Cost of China's Business Cycle

本文使用 Lucas 模型计算了中国商业周期的福利成本,提出了基于习惯形成的商业周期福利成本计算模型,发现引入习惯后,虽然福利成本增大了几倍,但是仍然不到2个百分点。跨国比较的结果显示,中国消费波动性的福利成本大约是美国福利成本的22倍。

Lucas (1987,2003) found that the welfare cost of business cycles in the U.S.was very small,about 0.05 per cent of per capita consumption.This interesting conclusion triggered a lot of research on this field.This pa- per proposed a new model based on habit formation.We find that the welfare cost of business cycles measured from habit formation model is far larger than Lucas' s model,however it is still no more than 2 per cent.We al- so use Lucas's model to measure the welfare cost of business cycles in China.The welfare cost of business cy- cles in China is 22 times larger than that for the U.S.economy.