铁路货物周转量的多因素分析和预测

Multi-Element Analysis and Forecasts of Railway Freight Turnover

提出了铁路货物周转量同营业里程、列车牵引净重和货物列车密度间的数学表达式，利用由此建立的货物周转量指数体系，研究了营业里程、列车牵引净重和货物列车密度变动引起的货物周转量的变化量；分析说明，４０多年来货物列车密度的快速增长是货物周转量大幅度增加的主要原因；通过本文所建立的一组回归方程，得出了营业里程、列车牵引净重。

In this paper, a railway freight turnover computatin expression relating length of line operated, tractive weight and freight train density is given. Then the freight turnover index system is derived, the railway freight turnover variations caused by length of line operated, tractive weight and freight train density are discussed. The analysis reveals that the freight train density has been playing a decisive role in greatly increasing railway freight turnover over the past 40 years. Finally, a set of regression equations, and the forecasts of length of line operated, tractive weight, freight train density and freight turnover in 2000 are obtained.