控制出来的“三大”人口高峰及相关学术悖论

Three-Large-Population Peaks as the Effects of the Fertility Control and Related Mistakes in Research

文章运用人口理论解析了出生人口高峰与“三大”人口高峰中的“高峰”的概念区别,论证了21世纪中国“三大”人口高峰的相继到来是实施计划生育后生育水平降至低生育水平并持续稳定的结果。同时指出,劳动年龄人口“黄金时代”、“人口生物老化”、老龄化中的“两堵墙”论等均是学术上的悖论。

By clarifying some key concepts and analyzing data approximate to the reality in future, this paper argues that the approaching of the three-large-population peaks in succession in the 21st century is the results of the fertility control, which has lowered the level of the life-time fertility and made it stabilized. The paper also points out that propositions such as 'gold times' of working-age population, 'biological population ageing', and 'two walls' in the process of population ageing are paradoxes in present research.