资本形式、国家政策与省际人口迁移

Capital Forms, Governmental Policies and Inter-Provincial Migration

文章运用条件罗吉特模型(CLGT),从省际迁移人口迁入省份选择性的角度,分析了省级社会经济因素和个体因素对不同性质的省际人口迁移行为的影响作用;讨论国家与政府在控制和引导人口迁移流向与流量时的政策问题。作者认为,国家宏观投资对中国的人口迁移与流动的宏观调控是部分失效的;三种资本由于各自目的不同,对人口迁移与流动的引导作用也不尽相同;省际迁移者对迁入省份的选择是个体在自身特征的基础上,对宏观经济状况的调整与适应。

Using the 2000 census data to estimate Conditional Logit Model (CLGT), this paper analyzes the influence of socio-economic factors and individual characteristics at provincial level on in the choice of inter-provincial migration. It also discusses policy issues at the central and provincial administrative levels in terms of quantitative and spatial control of migration. The conclusions are: (1) state investment has no impact on magnitude and distribution of migrants, (2) three forms of capital with respective purposes have different effects on migration flow, and (3) based on their individual characteristics, migrants adjust their behaviors in accordance with macro economic conditions in destination provinces.