管线断裂失效概率模型及计算

Model and Calculation of Pipeline Rapture Failure Probability

以相关管道档案、检验报告作为原始资料,配合现场调查及观测,采用“在役压力管道失效风险分析系统(SAPP)”,对管线断裂失效风险进行分析。将管线中各缺陷安全状况与失效风险有机地结合起来,在当前检测缺陷数据基础上,通过适当选取概率模型,计算管线的失效风险概率。对于准确了解管线的安全状态,制定具有针对性的检修计划,加强管线维护,保障装置的安全稳定运行有重要的现实意义。

Taking pipeline files and test reports as original materials, and with spot investigation and observation, the pipeline rupture failure was analyzed by adopting ＂failure analysis system for in service pressure pipeline＂. The safety situation of pipeline defects was combined with its failure risk. Based on current test data of defects, a rational probability model was chosen to calculate failure risk probability of the pipeline. It＇s very helpful to know the .safety situation of pipeline, make a proper plan for examining and repairing, enhance pipeline maintenance and ensure the equipment working safely and stably.