估算汇率弹性的模型和对人民币汇率的实证分析

A Model of Estimating the Exchange Rate Elasticity and Empirical Analysis to RMB

人民币汇率制度改革的主要内容之一是为人民币汇率估算一个适度的弹性范围。本文在F-M模型的基础上构建了一个能够较好地拟合我国实际情况的汇率弹性估算模型，并利用这个模型对人民币汇率的弹性进行了实证分析。该模型没有将汇率制度进行机械的分类，而是将不同汇率制度下汇率的弹性看作是从0～1的连续分布。实证分析的结果是人民币汇率的弹性范围应该限定在围绕均衡汇率上下浮动12％以内。

One of the main contents of reforming the exchange rate system of Renminbi is to estimate a moderate elastic scope for Renminbi. Based on the F-M model, this article constructs a model of choosing an appropriate exchange rate system which suits the actual situation of our country, and uses this model to analyse the exchange rate elasticity of Renminbi. This article has not carried on a mechanical classification of the exchange rate system, but regards the exchange rate elasticity of the different exchange rate system as continual distribution from 0 to 1. The re- sult shows the Renminbi elastic scope should be fluctuated within 12% around the balanced exchange rate.