基于随机水文过程的防洪调度风险分析

Risk analysis on flood control operation of reservoir based on stochastic hydrological process

通过对流域产流预报误差的统计分析,分析了窝水库根据洪水预报信息进行调度,改变水库泄流方式的安全性指标,然后采用随机模拟方法,研究分析了水库实施防洪预报调度方式相对于常规调度方式,水库及其上下游风险率的变化。研究表明,相对于常规调度方式,窝水库实施防洪预报调度方式未增加水库及其上下游的防洪风险。

Based on the analysis on the error of riverbasin runoff forcasting,the reliability of operation rule in Shenwo Reservoir for flood control and the risk difference between flood dispatches according to flood forecasting and traditional mode is investigated by using stochastic simulation. The result shows that in spite of the dispatch according to flood forecasting requests the adjustment of flood releasing mode of the reservoir, the risk of the reservoir including its upstream and downstream river sections will not change.