发电商上网结算电价的预测模型

Forecast Model of Power Clear-price of Generators

在电力市场中,电力价格一直是人们关注的焦点。虽然电力市场的结构因区域而不同,但这些电力市场有一个共同的特征就是电价具有很高的价格波动性,当电力供应商(发电商)、交易商和电力消费者都在这个波动的环境中把握自己的位置的时候,理解当地的电价变化规律就显得越来越重要。本文针对电力价格的波动性和多个大电网互联的情况下,提出了一种新的发电商上网结算电价的模型,给出了随机电价模型,并对此模型进行了分析。相比较已经存在的电价模型,这个模型是基于供求相互作用基础上的模型。文中对两个没有传输限制的市场由于市场参与者的信息延误导致价格差异进行了说明。同时,该模型还对系统拥塞情况的两个电力市场价格的相互转换进行了举例说明。

Price is always a focus to people in the deregulated electricity markets. While market structure differs by region, the common denominator has been the high level of price volatility experienced in these markets. As power suppliers, marketers and consumers seek to manage their positions in this volatile environment, understanding the local power prices is becoming increasingly important. This paper presents a new model of power cut-price of generators and gives a detailed analysis, under the condition of inter-linkage of several power markets. In contrast to most existing price models, this new model is developed based on the fundamental interaction of demand and supply processes. Moreover, this paper also illustrates how delays in the information flow to market participants causes price differentiation to occur between markets with unconstrained transmission interfaces and how the price correlation shifts between two markets based on the state of congestion in the system.