中国服务贸易开放与经济增长的长期均衡与短期波动研究

A Research on the Long-term Equilibrium and Short-term Fluctuation between Service Trade Openness and the Economic Growth in China

运用协整方法和误差修正模型,考察了中国服务贸易进口、出口与经济增长三者之间的关系。实证研究结果表明:服务贸易进口、出口与经济增长之间存在一个长期稳定的均衡关系,服务贸易进口与出口分别是经济增长的Granger原因;从短期来看,三者之间的关系由短期偏离向长期均衡调整的速度很快,且服务贸易进口的短期波动对中国经济增长的短期变化影响比较明显。

In accordance with the theory of co-integration and the error-correction model, this paper measures the relationship between China＇ s economic growth and service trade import and export. The result shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among the three. Export and import of the service trade is a Granger reason to economic growth. In the short run, the speed of the correction is very quick from the short fluctuation to long-term equilibrium, and the effect of the import fluctuation on economic growth fluctuation is significant.