基于SIR传染病模型的技术扩散模型的研究

The Research of Technology Diffusion Model Based on the SIR Epidemic Model

科技进步推动经济和社会发展是技术扩散来实现的,所以研究技术扩散现象具有十分重要的理论和现实意义。于技术扩散过程类似于传染病的蔓延过程,因此本文利用经典的传染病模型(SIR模型)建立了单一技术在单一企业群中扩散的SIR技术扩散模型、单一技术在多个企业群中扩散的SIR技术扩散模型和多种竞争技术在单一企业群中扩散的SIR技术扩散模型,并通过对三种模型的分析,研究了技术扩散现象的一般规律。

The progress of science and technology result in the development of society and economy, the realization of which predominantly depends on the technology diffusion. Because the technology diffusion is very similar to the spread of infectious diseases, this paper formulated the SIR model of single technology diffusing in one enterprise cluster, the SIR model of single technology diffusing in several enterprise clusters and the SIR model of several technologies diffusing in one enterprise cluster by applying the classical epidemic model （SIR model）. Through the analyses to the three kinds of models, the general regularity of the technology diffusion phenomena was studied.